Urban Transport Group’s annual report on the state of transport in England and Wales offers insights on shifting travel patterns
In the most recent year, bus patronage in Greater Manchester grew by 11%
BY Tom Ellerton, UTG
Each year when we publish Inside track, the Urban Transport Group’s annual report on the state of transport across England (and, for the first time, Wales too), I find myself returning to the same question: what story are the statistics telling us this time? Numbers can often be taken at face value, but it’s important to step back and look at how transport trends interact with the economy, with shifting travel patterns, and with the wider political context. And not just over the last year, but over the last decade. When we do, the picture usually becomes richer and more insightful.
So where do we find ourselves in 2026?
The bigger picture
After a decade marked by disruption, uncertainty and unpredictability in travel behaviour – largely as a result of the Covid pandemic – this edition of Inside track suggests that something more stable is starting to emerge. Overall, trip levels now appear to be levelling off. There was still growth in the most recent year, but the 1% increase in the average trip rate equates to just seven additional trips per person, notably lower than the 6% growth in 2023 and the 14% observed in 2022 as we emerged from the pandemic. This slowing rate of growth suggests that, after years of volatility, travel behaviour is beginning to settle into a new normal. Alongside this stabilisation, genuine reasons for optimism are emerging.
An economic turning point
One of the most hopeful signs is that the economies of our largest city regions are growing more strongly. A decade ago, only London was growing at or above the England average, with other core cities and their city regions lagging behind. That trend is now changing. In the most recent year (2023), every key city grew at or above the national average, a meaningful shift which suggests our cities are beginning to close the productivity gap and play a stronger role in driving their wider regional economies forward.
New powers and funding certainty are already making a difference on the ground
And whilst transport alone cannot deliver stronger economies, it is a critical component of a well-functioning urban system. If we are to create dense clusters of high value economic activity (in addition to ensuring people are able to access education and wider opportunities), we need to be able to move people around our cities efficiently without contributing to the congestion. Cities are often described as ‘engines of growth’ and good transport can act as a fuel for that growth and expansion of opportunity.
It would be somewhat misleading to paint an entirely rosy picture of the economic state of our urban areas. We know that behind the headline statistics, there are still challenges around deprivation and inequality within our city regions. But we also know that good transport can breakdown barriers to opportunity and help to overcome these challenges.
The devolution dividend
Over the past decade, and looking forward to the years ahead, devolution is a powerful catalyst for change and growth. The transfer of powers and funding to local leaders is enabling mayors and combined authorities to take a stronger role in shaping both their transport networks and their wider economies. Devolution is re-drawing the map: by the time the 2028 mayoral elections conclude, 20 places in England will have directly-elected mayors, and 67% of the population and 77% of the country’s economic output will sit within devolved areas.
We are now seeing the impact of devolution play out in the transport statistics of the most mature mayoral combined authorities. Greater Manchester is at the forefront, having completed the franchising of its bus network in January 2025, enabling bus to be added to the integrated Bee Network. In the most recent year, bus patronage there grew by 11%, alongside significant growth on the light rail network, currently the only major system to return to pre‑pandemic patronage levels. These improvements demonstrate the difference that devolved decision‑making and targeted investment can make.
An end to bus blues?
Nationally, bus patronage grew by 1% last year, a slowing from earlier post‑pandemic recovery. But the headline hides the real story: in many city regions, growth is outperforming the national picture. And that’s not just in Greater Manchester. The majority of UTG’s principal members saw bus patronage grow in the last year – up 6% in the North East and West of England and 5% in the West Midlands.
Meanwhile, bus service provision has fallen by an average of 19% across the country over the last decade. However, several Combined Authorities have managed to buck the trend and increase the number of miles run in the last year. There was growth in bus vehicle miles in Greater Manchester (7%), the North East (6%), the East Midlands (3%), and the West of England (18%). For UTG members, this averages out to a 3% growth in the most recent year.
The majority of UTG’s principal members saw bus patronage grow
It is fair to acknowledge that there are still challenges ahead for the bus sector. But new regulatory powers and greater local control are giving authorities more tools to reshape their networks and respond to local needs. As the new powers in the Bus Services Act 2025 come in, more areas will benefit from greater control of their bus networks, whether through franchising or the changes contained within the Enhanced Partnership review, providing hope that bus provision can be improved across the country.
Rail revival
Rail continues to be something of a quiet success story. Patronage grew by 7% in 2024/25, taking national rail use back to its pre‑pandemic levels, no small achievement considering that overall trip volumes across all modes remain below 2019 levels.
But there is a risk: while patronage has recovered, service levels have not fully kept pace. If capacity doesn’t grow in line with demand, constrained services could stall recent gains. Maintaining and enhancing service levels will therefore be critical to supporting long‑term, sustainable growth.
This year is set to be a big year for rail, as the Railways Bill becomes law. We hope to see a bigger, more influential role for local leaders in local rail services in the legislation. Only time will tell how that may play out in rail statistics but the direction of travel appears promising.
Light rail continues its recovery
Light rail is a vital mode in many city regions, with seven of the UK’s nine systems within UTG’s membership. The picture varies by network, but overall recovery is progressing. Greater Manchester, the West Midlands, Nottingham, and Tyne and Wear all saw growth last year, with Greater Manchester surpassing its pre‑pandemic patronage figures. If growth continues, more networks may reach that milestone in the coming years.
The best of the rest
Walking figures remain strong, with average trip numbers back up to the 2022 level, the joint highest number reported in the last decade. Cycling however, has plateaued nationally. Yet, as we have consistently said, “if you build it, they will come” – where there has been investment in high quality infrastructure, trip numbers grow in response. London is the best example of this, seeing a 43% increase in cycling levels since 2019 and 12% in the last year alone, with the expanding cycle network continuing to attract more riders.
Challenges remain
The not-so-good news? Traffic levels, congestion, and road speeds continue to be a challenge in the main urban areas, with average speeds on A-roads continuing to fall. Whilst this is not automatically a negative (policy choices to reduce speed limits have wider positive impacts such as on road safety), if we are to unlock the economic potential of our city regions, we need to ensure that enough people can access our city centres in reasonable journey times – and good public transport and walking, cycling and wheeling infrastructure is key to that goal.
Moving in the right direction
So, what does this all mean? Ultimately, we are moving in the right direction.
With Integrated Settlements benefitting more areas from April, growing momentum on rail and devolution as the Railways Bill and English Devolution Bill progress through Parliament, and with a new National Transport Strategy and refreshed Local Transport Plans on the horizon, there is the promise of further progress.
It will take time for all these interventions to be fully reflected in the statistics. But the early signs are encouraging. New powers and funding certainty are already making a difference on the ground, most notably in Greater Manchester, where the integrated Bee Network is driving patronage growth, improving reliability and increasing revenue.
This offers real hope that local accountability and local decision‑making can drive our public transport networks forward, delivering the services that our city regions need if they are to continue to grow.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Tom Ellerton began working for the Urban Transport Group in 2014 as a Researcher. Now, as Senior Policy Manager, he works on key policy issues such as bus and active travel, and develops data and analytical work to support UTG members.
This story appears inside the latest issue of Passenger Transport.
The inside track behind the statistics
by Passenger Transport on Mar 13, 2026 • 2:52 pm No CommentsUrban Transport Group’s annual report on the state of transport in England and Wales offers insights on shifting travel patterns
BY Tom Ellerton, UTG
Each year when we publish Inside track, the Urban Transport Group’s annual report on the state of transport across England (and, for the first time, Wales too), I find myself returning to the same question: what story are the statistics telling us this time? Numbers can often be taken at face value, but it’s important to step back and look at how transport trends interact with the economy, with shifting travel patterns, and with the wider political context. And not just over the last year, but over the last decade. When we do, the picture usually becomes richer and more insightful.
So where do we find ourselves in 2026?
The bigger picture
After a decade marked by disruption, uncertainty and unpredictability in travel behaviour – largely as a result of the Covid pandemic – this edition of Inside track suggests that something more stable is starting to emerge. Overall, trip levels now appear to be levelling off. There was still growth in the most recent year, but the 1% increase in the average trip rate equates to just seven additional trips per person, notably lower than the 6% growth in 2023 and the 14% observed in 2022 as we emerged from the pandemic. This slowing rate of growth suggests that, after years of volatility, travel behaviour is beginning to settle into a new normal. Alongside this stabilisation, genuine reasons for optimism are emerging.
An economic turning point
One of the most hopeful signs is that the economies of our largest city regions are growing more strongly. A decade ago, only London was growing at or above the England average, with other core cities and their city regions lagging behind. That trend is now changing. In the most recent year (2023), every key city grew at or above the national average, a meaningful shift which suggests our cities are beginning to close the productivity gap and play a stronger role in driving their wider regional economies forward.
And whilst transport alone cannot deliver stronger economies, it is a critical component of a well-functioning urban system. If we are to create dense clusters of high value economic activity (in addition to ensuring people are able to access education and wider opportunities), we need to be able to move people around our cities efficiently without contributing to the congestion. Cities are often described as ‘engines of growth’ and good transport can act as a fuel for that growth and expansion of opportunity.
It would be somewhat misleading to paint an entirely rosy picture of the economic state of our urban areas. We know that behind the headline statistics, there are still challenges around deprivation and inequality within our city regions. But we also know that good transport can breakdown barriers to opportunity and help to overcome these challenges.
The devolution dividend
Over the past decade, and looking forward to the years ahead, devolution is a powerful catalyst for change and growth. The transfer of powers and funding to local leaders is enabling mayors and combined authorities to take a stronger role in shaping both their transport networks and their wider economies. Devolution is re-drawing the map: by the time the 2028 mayoral elections conclude, 20 places in England will have directly-elected mayors, and 67% of the population and 77% of the country’s economic output will sit within devolved areas.
We are now seeing the impact of devolution play out in the transport statistics of the most mature mayoral combined authorities. Greater Manchester is at the forefront, having completed the franchising of its bus network in January 2025, enabling bus to be added to the integrated Bee Network. In the most recent year, bus patronage there grew by 11%, alongside significant growth on the light rail network, currently the only major system to return to pre‑pandemic patronage levels. These improvements demonstrate the difference that devolved decision‑making and targeted investment can make.
An end to bus blues?
Nationally, bus patronage grew by 1% last year, a slowing from earlier post‑pandemic recovery. But the headline hides the real story: in many city regions, growth is outperforming the national picture. And that’s not just in Greater Manchester. The majority of UTG’s principal members saw bus patronage grow in the last year – up 6% in the North East and West of England and 5% in the West Midlands.
Meanwhile, bus service provision has fallen by an average of 19% across the country over the last decade. However, several Combined Authorities have managed to buck the trend and increase the number of miles run in the last year. There was growth in bus vehicle miles in Greater Manchester (7%), the North East (6%), the East Midlands (3%), and the West of England (18%). For UTG members, this averages out to a 3% growth in the most recent year.
It is fair to acknowledge that there are still challenges ahead for the bus sector. But new regulatory powers and greater local control are giving authorities more tools to reshape their networks and respond to local needs. As the new powers in the Bus Services Act 2025 come in, more areas will benefit from greater control of their bus networks, whether through franchising or the changes contained within the Enhanced Partnership review, providing hope that bus provision can be improved across the country.
Rail revival
Rail continues to be something of a quiet success story. Patronage grew by 7% in 2024/25, taking national rail use back to its pre‑pandemic levels, no small achievement considering that overall trip volumes across all modes remain below 2019 levels.
But there is a risk: while patronage has recovered, service levels have not fully kept pace. If capacity doesn’t grow in line with demand, constrained services could stall recent gains. Maintaining and enhancing service levels will therefore be critical to supporting long‑term, sustainable growth.
This year is set to be a big year for rail, as the Railways Bill becomes law. We hope to see a bigger, more influential role for local leaders in local rail services in the legislation. Only time will tell how that may play out in rail statistics but the direction of travel appears promising.
Light rail continues its recovery
Light rail is a vital mode in many city regions, with seven of the UK’s nine systems within UTG’s membership. The picture varies by network, but overall recovery is progressing. Greater Manchester, the West Midlands, Nottingham, and Tyne and Wear all saw growth last year, with Greater Manchester surpassing its pre‑pandemic patronage figures. If growth continues, more networks may reach that milestone in the coming years.
The best of the rest
Walking figures remain strong, with average trip numbers back up to the 2022 level, the joint highest number reported in the last decade. Cycling however, has plateaued nationally. Yet, as we have consistently said, “if you build it, they will come” – where there has been investment in high quality infrastructure, trip numbers grow in response. London is the best example of this, seeing a 43% increase in cycling levels since 2019 and 12% in the last year alone, with the expanding cycle network continuing to attract more riders.
Challenges remain
The not-so-good news? Traffic levels, congestion, and road speeds continue to be a challenge in the main urban areas, with average speeds on A-roads continuing to fall. Whilst this is not automatically a negative (policy choices to reduce speed limits have wider positive impacts such as on road safety), if we are to unlock the economic potential of our city regions, we need to ensure that enough people can access our city centres in reasonable journey times – and good public transport and walking, cycling and wheeling infrastructure is key to that goal.
Moving in the right direction
So, what does this all mean? Ultimately, we are moving in the right direction.
With Integrated Settlements benefitting more areas from April, growing momentum on rail and devolution as the Railways Bill and English Devolution Bill progress through Parliament, and with a new National Transport Strategy and refreshed Local Transport Plans on the horizon, there is the promise of further progress.
It will take time for all these interventions to be fully reflected in the statistics. But the early signs are encouraging. New powers and funding certainty are already making a difference on the ground, most notably in Greater Manchester, where the integrated Bee Network is driving patronage growth, improving reliability and increasing revenue.
This offers real hope that local accountability and local decision‑making can drive our public transport networks forward, delivering the services that our city regions need if they are to continue to grow.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Tom Ellerton began working for the Urban Transport Group in 2014 as a Researcher. Now, as Senior Policy Manager, he works on key policy issues such as bus and active travel, and develops data and analytical work to support UTG members.
This story appears inside the latest issue of Passenger Transport.
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