Consultation is the first step that could see the first bus services in the West Midlands under public control by 2027. Andrew Garnett reports

 
Richard Parker launched the consultation in Coventry

 
West Midlands mayor Richard Parker has launched a consultation on plans to franchise the region’s bus network.

The consultation will remain open until the end of March and a final decision about whether to proceed with franchising is epxected later this year. That could see the first franchised bus services launched in 2027.

“Buses are the backbone of our transport system,” said Parker. “But despite getting £50m a year of public funding, the current system is letting people down – they are often unreliable and don’t always offer the routes or timetables that people need.”

Parker said the franchising consultation was a big step toward delivering change. “I want people to give their views and help us shape a new bus network together,” he added.

The consultation makes clear that maintaining the current system is unsustainable. West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA) modelling forecasts a potential 40% drop in bus patronage to 100 million by 2041-42, jeopardising the viability of the commercial network and significantly increasing reliance on public funding. Without intervention, the subsidy cost per passenger journey is projected to rise by 68%, from £0.43 in 2027-28 to £0.71 by 2041-42.

It has led the combined authority to consider three options: a so-called ‘Reference Case’ where the status quo is maintained; a ‘Future Partnership’ that would build on the existing Enhanced Partnership with local operators; and a franchise scheme where WMCA would take control of the network.

The Future Partnership option would strengthen current partnerships, with WMCA addressing market gaps by potentially funding new depot facilities to boost competition for supported service contracts. Additionally, WMCA would assume revenue risk on these contracts.

WMCA warns that under the partnership approach, passenger numbers would drop to 102 million by 2041-42. In comparison, franchising is projected to result in a slightly higher figure of 107 million passengers by that time.

“The cost per passenger journey incurred by WMCA would be £0.62 by 2041-42, which is an improvement on the Reference Case and the Future Partnership approach,” claimed the combined authority.

We would further expect franchising to enable better alignment of public investment with outcomes in terms of improved bus services

“We would further expect franchising to enable better alignment of public investment with outcomes in terms of improved bus services.”

It claims its franchise scheme would generate £2.10 of benefits for every £1 spent. This is less than the Future Partnership would achieve, but the overall WMCA claims the socioeconomic are more than double that of the Future Partnership at £683m over the assessment period.

The consultation documents also provide some insight into WMCA’s procurement plans. This includes a detailed lotting strategy that divides the region into nine operational zones.

Each franchised zone includes one large lot, which accounts for the majority of local services within the area, generally operated from a single depot. Alongside these large lots, several smaller lots will be offered requiring fewer vehicles.

Packaging routes via the lotting strategy, with provision for small lots, ensures opportunities for SMEs

“Packaging routes via the lotting strategy, with provision for small lots, ensures opportunities for SMEs,” WMCA noted. “This helps foster competition, enhances service quality, and supports local economic growth by allowing smaller operators to play a more significant role.”

The depot startegy suggests that for large lots, WMCA intends to acquire or lease existing depots or, where necessary, develop new sites. By controlling these key assets,the combined authority hopes to ensure equal access for all bidders. In contrast, operators of the smaller lots will be responsible for sourcing their own depot facilities but opportunities for SME bidders to shares sites will be explored.

The roll-out of the franchising model will be phased over several years, with three zones introduced in each tranche of contracts. Phase one will include Coventry, Birmingham North, and Walsall. Phase two will cover Wolverhampton, West Bromwich, and Dudley, while the final phase will focus on Birmingham South East, Birmingham South West and Solihull, and Birmingham East. Each phase will be separated by a year to allow a smooth transition and avoid disruption.Contracts will be awarded on a seven-year basis.

 
This article appears in the latest issue of Passenger Transport.

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