Will rail price itself out of existence? Will England’s bus users bulk at £3 fares? Will small businesses be squeezed out? We will see
Commemorative rail coin 1825-2025 (credit: The Royal Mint)
UK Rail, 1825-2025
2025 is the 200th anniversary of the railway in the UK, but could this be the year that a threshold is breached in terms of rail fares, and is the industry pricing itself out of existence? A lot of grandiose press statements are made about a future railway with simplified fares, pay-as-you-go, contactless and smart ticketing per se, as though customers should be truly indebted and delighted – but the bottom line is that they want to be able to afford to travel by train. Sometimes, when I buy a ticket from my local station, I’m terrified to see the price appear on the screen. Apparently, there’s a big rail fares sale in January, but the publicity seems low key. It’s almost as if the sector is trying to hasten its demise.
Unnecessary costs going northwards
Part of the problem with rail fares is that the industry has become too costly to run. I was speechless when I heard a rumour doing the rounds among railway top brass before Christmas that a headhunter enjoyed a fee of 50% on a recent senior rail appointment in the public sector. The job probably commanded a salary of around £150k at least, so that’s money for old rope. The role was attractive and not particularly specialist or difficult to fill, the type, dare I say it, I or others could have found the postholder for whilst messing around on LinkedIn, munching my Saturday night popcorn with ‘Match of the Day’ blaring away in the background. Headhunters add value – I should know as I’ve done this myself for over 13 years – but the industry doesn’t do itself any favours, crying plaintively about the need to reduce costs on the one hand, yet letting money go out the door so freely on the other.
Across transport in the past year and in other sectors I have worked in, some eyebrow-raising senior appointments have caused incredulity
Bungling appointments
Talking of appointments, 2025 may be the year when there are more key senior roles to be filled, particularly with the evolution of Great British Railways. Some exceptionally talented people are out there, many of whom are self-effacing, hard-working, limelight shunners. Let’s hope there are transparent processes to fill these positions and it’s not a case of jobs for those who is the best at self-propaganda. Across transport in the past year and in other sectors I have worked in, some eyebrow-raising senior appointments have caused incredulity, where there clearly has been zero due diligence around those taking up positions. This is where HR directors need to earn their crust and be more accountable. Some do and some don’t, albeit we live in a climate where Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) are all the rage, so it’s becoming impossible even to ask a previous employer for a proper reference.
High hopes with Hynes
During these uncertain transitional times in rail, strong leadership has never been more important. In the autumn, I attended the CILT Rail Forum Dinner, for which Alex Hynes was the keynote speaker. It would be hard to find a more impressive speech as he spoke in a very states-person way but with candour, charisma, wit and humility. It made me realise that in adversity, as it feels right now, the railway is in great hands with senior, relatable folk like Hynes in such an influential role (long may that continue), along with Andrew Haines, Laura Shoaf and many other similar role models and strong, galvanising leaders. Let’s hope that others who have been associated with the successes of railway franchising aren’t ostracised in the new world just because they are seen to represent an era that is now being politically branded as a failure. Their credentials should be recognised.
Mediocrity not milestones
Indeed, unless there is a massive about-turn, it looks like there’s no going back on the ‘nationalisation’ of all of the remaining franchised operations. So too, unless there is a massive, sudden turnaround in performance at those train companies in public sector control currently, there will continue to be nervousness and cynicism around this decision. Private operators delivered great milestones. These include ground-breaking journey time reductions, on-board comfort, quality and service frequency enhancements on the West Coast Mainline that could only have been dreamt of a few short years back, through to record patronage levels nationwide and eye-watering revivals of a hitherto neglected part of the railway, such as Chiltern, the former down-at-heel South Central network or the mish-mash of dilapidated lines that now constitute London Overground.
The concession model at London Overground should be setting the template for the entire industry and would do, were it not for the stubbornness of the current government around wholesale nationalisation and bar open access, just because they are deluded that it will strike a populist chord with the nation. This desire for headline-grabbing has fallen flat due to an increasing awareness that, bar a few exceptions, underwhelming performance in terms of customer and cost metrics at those franchises already within state control doesn’t suggest that this ownership model can create legacy-lasting milestone achievements on a par with those previously delivered by private operators. Small initiatives such as board games for families or chefs walking through the train doing food tasting exercises, as happened on Midland Mainline – the type of customer-focused, cost-effective initiatives that were part and parcel of most train operating companies back in the not-too-distant past and just happened without trumpet-blowing, would be lauded today as revolutionary.
It was interesting to note that several polls conducted after the Autumn budget showed that the fares rise mattered more to many people than any other unpopular decision
Fixed fare’s the fillip, even at £3.
So, England’s bus fare cap has risen, and bus fares have been hiked up to £3 and even for a public transport nut such as I, the £2 fare changed my habits. There were several occasions when I’d get the bus to local football matches and the model railway shop, rather than cycling or Uber or not going at all. I’ve lost count of the times I’ve hopped on a bus instead of a train or flows where a bus journey is not only much cheaper but where the whole experience is far more pleasant and customer-focused (Harrogate to Leeds, Preston to Blackburn and Burnley, Chesterfield to Sheffield to name but a few).
It was interesting to note that several polls conducted after the Autumn budget showed that the fares rise mattered more to many people than any other unpopular decision.
I’m genuinely nervous as to whether the £1 increase will hobble patronage and would love to see any research conducted to see whether a threshold in terms of price sensitivity is likely to be broken. I am confident that the concept of a fixed fare has been a real attraction for existing and potential customers – none of that faffing around wondering what the price will be or having an embarrassing moment in front of customers when boarding a bus. What we do need, though, is more concerted marketing of the £3 fare. The £2 offering should have been marketed to the hilt across all parts of the industry, yet it still felt all a little bit taciturn.
Seizing the multi-modal opportunity
We’re in the grip of franchising in the bus sector, with Tranche 3 enacted in Greater Manchester. I’m confident that ComfortDelGro will do a great job mobilising and running its routes across the city. Under the stewardship of the impressive Patrick Sibley, supported by the hugely experienced Mike Watson, they’ve got a great team in their Manchester Metroline business. In the future, I just hope that Manchester and other future franchising models prioritise both the soft quality aspects of customer service – smile, eye contact, first and last impressions, and multi-modal integration. Every transport conference waxes lyrical about creating connected journeys, but it still feels like holy grail, ideological mumbo jumbo – and it needs every mayoral or local authority to show conviction around this key requirement for customers. Traditionally, policy-makers and operators have tended to take a binary lens – either bus or rail and any meeting between the two can feel half-hearted, and the concept of other modes joining the party happens by accident or in the aftermath. Bus franchising, in tandem with the creation of Great British Railways, offers an unprecedented opportunity to get the specification right and change the culture once and for all.
It would be an absolute travesty if franchising across the UK expedites the disappearance of independent businesses
A place for small businesses
It was poignant to read on social media the final farewells from those at the independent, family-run business Stotts Tours of Oldham, who will no longer operate for Transport for Greater Manchester as a result of the franchising programme. It would be an absolute travesty if franchising across the UK expedites the disappearance of independent businesses, most of which have a real affinity with customers and their local communities. As a small consultancy business owner, every year it gets harder, with more onerous bureaucracy foisted upon us as part of supplier frameworks, protracted payment cycles and the hike in employer National Insurance contributions. I shudder to think how hard it is for small transport operators with their fixed costs and societal changes impacting patronage levels. 2025 won’t be any easier.
Mega excited about coach travel
I spent a lot of time in 2024 travelling on long-distance coach services in the UK and researching the sector. From established, well respected operators such as Megabus and National Express to newcomers in Flix and Ember, the quality of service is improving, and the marketing is surpassing that in rail with every passing year. Talking to many folk, I see an increasing propensity among previous coach heathens to get on board, particularly as rail faces up to more industrial action, stuttering performance and unpalatable fares. Rail may be celebrating its 200th year, but longevity and heritage count for nothing among younger generations with each passing year and a generation increasingly disillusioned with rail. Coach travel has, for too long, been considered slightly niche or for those who are marginalised. It won’t be long before it’s regarded as mainstream and maybe even a tad fashionable.
Stupidity on socials
It’s the hope that kills you – an old adage that sums up my blind belief each year that will see Crystal Palace finally win a trophy. By the same token, at the start of every year, I remain deludedly optimistic that we’ll see an end to the social media nonsense that infects ego-tripping transport managers bereft of self-awareness. For 2025, I’d forgo Palace winning something if it meant ceasing those condescending posts showing senior leaders posing with frontline colleagues. These poor fake-grinning folk look under-duress as they are asked for a ‘selfie’ beside their ‘celebrity’ boss, who treats them like novelty-value, circus performing acts. It’s unedifying.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Alex Warner has over 30 years’ experience in the transport sector, having held senior roles on a multi-modal basis across the sector. He is co-founder of transport technology business Lost Group and transport consultancy AJW Experience Group (which includes Great Scenic Journeys). He is also chair of West Midlands Grand Rail Collaboration.
This story appears inside the latest issue of Passenger Transport.
My hopes and fears for the New Year
by Passenger Transport on Jan 10, 2025 • 1:02 pm No CommentsWill rail price itself out of existence? Will England’s bus users bulk at £3 fares? Will small businesses be squeezed out? We will see
UK Rail, 1825-2025
2025 is the 200th anniversary of the railway in the UK, but could this be the year that a threshold is breached in terms of rail fares, and is the industry pricing itself out of existence? A lot of grandiose press statements are made about a future railway with simplified fares, pay-as-you-go, contactless and smart ticketing per se, as though customers should be truly indebted and delighted – but the bottom line is that they want to be able to afford to travel by train. Sometimes, when I buy a ticket from my local station, I’m terrified to see the price appear on the screen. Apparently, there’s a big rail fares sale in January, but the publicity seems low key. It’s almost as if the sector is trying to hasten its demise.
Unnecessary costs going northwards
Part of the problem with rail fares is that the industry has become too costly to run. I was speechless when I heard a rumour doing the rounds among railway top brass before Christmas that a headhunter enjoyed a fee of 50% on a recent senior rail appointment in the public sector. The job probably commanded a salary of around £150k at least, so that’s money for old rope. The role was attractive and not particularly specialist or difficult to fill, the type, dare I say it, I or others could have found the postholder for whilst messing around on LinkedIn, munching my Saturday night popcorn with ‘Match of the Day’ blaring away in the background. Headhunters add value – I should know as I’ve done this myself for over 13 years – but the industry doesn’t do itself any favours, crying plaintively about the need to reduce costs on the one hand, yet letting money go out the door so freely on the other.
Bungling appointments
Talking of appointments, 2025 may be the year when there are more key senior roles to be filled, particularly with the evolution of Great British Railways. Some exceptionally talented people are out there, many of whom are self-effacing, hard-working, limelight shunners. Let’s hope there are transparent processes to fill these positions and it’s not a case of jobs for those who is the best at self-propaganda. Across transport in the past year and in other sectors I have worked in, some eyebrow-raising senior appointments have caused incredulity, where there clearly has been zero due diligence around those taking up positions. This is where HR directors need to earn their crust and be more accountable. Some do and some don’t, albeit we live in a climate where Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) are all the rage, so it’s becoming impossible even to ask a previous employer for a proper reference.
High hopes with Hynes
During these uncertain transitional times in rail, strong leadership has never been more important. In the autumn, I attended the CILT Rail Forum Dinner, for which Alex Hynes was the keynote speaker. It would be hard to find a more impressive speech as he spoke in a very states-person way but with candour, charisma, wit and humility. It made me realise that in adversity, as it feels right now, the railway is in great hands with senior, relatable folk like Hynes in such an influential role (long may that continue), along with Andrew Haines, Laura Shoaf and many other similar role models and strong, galvanising leaders. Let’s hope that others who have been associated with the successes of railway franchising aren’t ostracised in the new world just because they are seen to represent an era that is now being politically branded as a failure. Their credentials should be recognised.
Mediocrity not milestones
Indeed, unless there is a massive about-turn, it looks like there’s no going back on the ‘nationalisation’ of all of the remaining franchised operations. So too, unless there is a massive, sudden turnaround in performance at those train companies in public sector control currently, there will continue to be nervousness and cynicism around this decision. Private operators delivered great milestones. These include ground-breaking journey time reductions, on-board comfort, quality and service frequency enhancements on the West Coast Mainline that could only have been dreamt of a few short years back, through to record patronage levels nationwide and eye-watering revivals of a hitherto neglected part of the railway, such as Chiltern, the former down-at-heel South Central network or the mish-mash of dilapidated lines that now constitute London Overground.
The concession model at London Overground should be setting the template for the entire industry and would do, were it not for the stubbornness of the current government around wholesale nationalisation and bar open access, just because they are deluded that it will strike a populist chord with the nation. This desire for headline-grabbing has fallen flat due to an increasing awareness that, bar a few exceptions, underwhelming performance in terms of customer and cost metrics at those franchises already within state control doesn’t suggest that this ownership model can create legacy-lasting milestone achievements on a par with those previously delivered by private operators. Small initiatives such as board games for families or chefs walking through the train doing food tasting exercises, as happened on Midland Mainline – the type of customer-focused, cost-effective initiatives that were part and parcel of most train operating companies back in the not-too-distant past and just happened without trumpet-blowing, would be lauded today as revolutionary.
Fixed fare’s the fillip, even at £3.
So, England’s bus fare cap has risen, and bus fares have been hiked up to £3 and even for a public transport nut such as I, the £2 fare changed my habits. There were several occasions when I’d get the bus to local football matches and the model railway shop, rather than cycling or Uber or not going at all. I’ve lost count of the times I’ve hopped on a bus instead of a train or flows where a bus journey is not only much cheaper but where the whole experience is far more pleasant and customer-focused (Harrogate to Leeds, Preston to Blackburn and Burnley, Chesterfield to Sheffield to name but a few).
It was interesting to note that several polls conducted after the Autumn budget showed that the fares rise mattered more to many people than any other unpopular decision.
I’m genuinely nervous as to whether the £1 increase will hobble patronage and would love to see any research conducted to see whether a threshold in terms of price sensitivity is likely to be broken. I am confident that the concept of a fixed fare has been a real attraction for existing and potential customers – none of that faffing around wondering what the price will be or having an embarrassing moment in front of customers when boarding a bus. What we do need, though, is more concerted marketing of the £3 fare. The £2 offering should have been marketed to the hilt across all parts of the industry, yet it still felt all a little bit taciturn.
Seizing the multi-modal opportunity
We’re in the grip of franchising in the bus sector, with Tranche 3 enacted in Greater Manchester. I’m confident that ComfortDelGro will do a great job mobilising and running its routes across the city. Under the stewardship of the impressive Patrick Sibley, supported by the hugely experienced Mike Watson, they’ve got a great team in their Manchester Metroline business. In the future, I just hope that Manchester and other future franchising models prioritise both the soft quality aspects of customer service – smile, eye contact, first and last impressions, and multi-modal integration. Every transport conference waxes lyrical about creating connected journeys, but it still feels like holy grail, ideological mumbo jumbo – and it needs every mayoral or local authority to show conviction around this key requirement for customers. Traditionally, policy-makers and operators have tended to take a binary lens – either bus or rail and any meeting between the two can feel half-hearted, and the concept of other modes joining the party happens by accident or in the aftermath. Bus franchising, in tandem with the creation of Great British Railways, offers an unprecedented opportunity to get the specification right and change the culture once and for all.
A place for small businesses
It was poignant to read on social media the final farewells from those at the independent, family-run business Stotts Tours of Oldham, who will no longer operate for Transport for Greater Manchester as a result of the franchising programme. It would be an absolute travesty if franchising across the UK expedites the disappearance of independent businesses, most of which have a real affinity with customers and their local communities. As a small consultancy business owner, every year it gets harder, with more onerous bureaucracy foisted upon us as part of supplier frameworks, protracted payment cycles and the hike in employer National Insurance contributions. I shudder to think how hard it is for small transport operators with their fixed costs and societal changes impacting patronage levels. 2025 won’t be any easier.
Mega excited about coach travel
I spent a lot of time in 2024 travelling on long-distance coach services in the UK and researching the sector. From established, well respected operators such as Megabus and National Express to newcomers in Flix and Ember, the quality of service is improving, and the marketing is surpassing that in rail with every passing year. Talking to many folk, I see an increasing propensity among previous coach heathens to get on board, particularly as rail faces up to more industrial action, stuttering performance and unpalatable fares. Rail may be celebrating its 200th year, but longevity and heritage count for nothing among younger generations with each passing year and a generation increasingly disillusioned with rail. Coach travel has, for too long, been considered slightly niche or for those who are marginalised. It won’t be long before it’s regarded as mainstream and maybe even a tad fashionable.
Stupidity on socials
It’s the hope that kills you – an old adage that sums up my blind belief each year that will see Crystal Palace finally win a trophy. By the same token, at the start of every year, I remain deludedly optimistic that we’ll see an end to the social media nonsense that infects ego-tripping transport managers bereft of self-awareness. For 2025, I’d forgo Palace winning something if it meant ceasing those condescending posts showing senior leaders posing with frontline colleagues. These poor fake-grinning folk look under-duress as they are asked for a ‘selfie’ beside their ‘celebrity’ boss, who treats them like novelty-value, circus performing acts. It’s unedifying.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Alex Warner has over 30 years’ experience in the transport sector, having held senior roles on a multi-modal basis across the sector. He is co-founder of transport technology business Lost Group and transport consultancy AJW Experience Group (which includes Great Scenic Journeys). He is also chair of West Midlands Grand Rail Collaboration.
This story appears inside the latest issue of Passenger Transport.
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