New statistics reveal strong passenger growth, but there is some way to go before the bus industry surpasses patronage recorded before the pandemic

 
BY Andrew Garnett

New statistics from the Department for Transport reveal that the number of local bus passenger journeys in Great Britain reached 4.04 billion in the year ending March 2024, an 8% increase from the previous year. In England, patronage reached 3.6 billion passneger journeys, a 7% increase on 2023.
The Covid-19 pandemic’s detrimental effects on bus industry economics remain evident as this is below the 4.1 billion journeys recorded in the year to March 2020. But there is good news: passenger journeys  are recovering. The most recent statistics suggest that overall patronage in England is now 90% of pre-pandemic levels, but service provision lags at 81-84%.

In London bus passenger journeys rose by 5%, reaching 1.85 billion, which accounts for 51% of all bus journeys in England. Looking outside the capital, the rest of England saw passenger journeys increase by 10% to 1.78 billion, reflecting a stronger recovery trend than London. In Metropolitan areas, patronage was up 9% to 0.76 billion, while in the shires, it was up 12% to 1.03 billion.

Concessionary travel accounted for 28% of all journeys, totalling 1 billion. This marks a slight decline from 29% in 2023 and 32% recorded pre-pandemic. Some of the changes in this segment, such as demographic changes, are well known. However, the DfT notes that the latest statistics reflect updated methodologies that exclude the 60+ Oyster card in London, which is now considered a commercial discount.

Bus mileage remained flat at 1.0 billion miles, equivalent to 88% of pre-pandemic levels. Regional trends show mixed performance: London’s mileage stayed stable, metropolitan areas saw a modest 3% increase, and non-metropolitan areas experienced a 1% decline. These figures raise questions about service consistency, particularly in areas where recovery in passenger numbers has been robust but mileage lags behind.

The DfT reports geographic variations in bus use too. Passenger journeys per head averaged 37 in England outside London, a 9% increase from 2023 but still below the peak of 55 in 2009. Urban areas continued to see higher bus use.

Turning to fleet composition and accessibility, the bus fleet in England consisted of 29,790 buses as of March 2024, a 1% decrease from the previous year.

Key highlights include:

  • Accessibility: 99% of buses had accessibility certificates, with 53% offering audio-visual information (97% in London vs. 34% outside London);
  • Emissions: 61% of buses met Euro 6 estandards, and 8% were zero-emission; and
  • Technology: Most buses had CCTV (96%) and contactless payment options (94%).

The local bus fares index rose by 3%, which is in line with inflation (CPI) and reflects stable real-term prices. However, initiatives like the £2 fare cap have helped shield passengers from higher costs, but long-term affordability remains a concern, especially for price-sensitive users.

On one hand, there are clear signs of recovery, but patronage still falls short of pre-pandemic figures. Service provision also remains stuck in a rut

Comment

The latest data from the DfT reveals a mixed picture. On one hand, there are clear signs of recovery, but patronage still falls short of pre-pandemic figures. Service provision also remains stuck in a rut.

But there are reasons to be cheerful – passenger numbers outside London have shown strong growth, highlighting opportunities for recovery. However, these gains are uneven, and challenges in aligning mileage with rising demand remain.

Concessionary travel continues to decline, perhaps reflecting changes in reporting methodologies, but it is clear that other demographic shifts are taking place too. Comparatively wealthy Baby Boomers in retirement seem to be less likely to take advantage of their free bus pass entitlement. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues when the first cohort of Generation X reaches retirement age at the end of the decade.

The static bus mileage figures point to deeper structural challenges too. Even as passenger numbers recover, the failure to increase mileage suggests constraints in being able to effectively grow the market.

Meanwhile, the composition of the bus fleet reflects a sector in transition. Progress on accessibility remains a high point, but adoption of zero-emission technologies is slow.

Although fares rose by 3% in line with inflation, initiatives like the £2 fare cap have been pivotal in keeping bus travel affordable. It will be interesting to see what happens when the £2 fare cap becomes £3 in the new year.

Overall, the statistics highlight a sector moving in the right direction but still grappling with the legacy of Covid-19.

 

Bus statistics: Key takeaways

  • Passenger journeys are recovering but remain below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Shire counties are seeing stronger passenger growth than the former metropolitan counties and Greater London.
  • Accessibility and emission standards in the fleet have improved, but adoption of zero-emission is slow.
  • The £2 fare cap has been an effective measure in controlling bus fare costs for passengers.
  • Concessionary travel is declining as a share of total journeys, influenced by demographic shifts and changes in reporting methodologies.
  • Service mileage has stagnated, remaining significantly below.

    • pre-pandemic levels, highlighting regional disparities and the ongoing challenges in maintaining or expanding networks.

 
This article appears in the latest issue of Passenger Transport.

DON’T MISS OUT – GET YOUR COPY! – click here to subscribe!