Our sample of public transport professionals expressed optismism about the sector’s future
We are at the beginning of a new era for the country – and perhaps also for the public transport sector. This month’s general election saw voters indicate their desire for a change of direction – but what about those working in the public transport sector? What is their current mood?
In 2021 and 2022, as we emerged from the pandemic, our The State of UK Public Transport survey revealed remarkable optimism about the future of their sector, despite the obvious and immediate challenges. But so much has happened since then, including the disastrous Liz Truss budget, followed by Rishi Sunak’s ‘Plan for Drivers’ and the decision to axe HS2 north of Birmingham.
We teamed up with data specialists CitySwift again to survey 48 passenger transport professionals, including many well known names in the sector.
In the short-term, 63.8% of respondents said that increasing patronage or footfall was the biggest opportunity for the public transport sector
In the short-term, 63.8% of respondents said that increasing patronage or footfall was the biggest opportunity for the public transport sector. Having adapted to post-Covid travel patterns, is the stage now set for the sector to move forwards and grow its customer base?
But there are challenges to overcome, and the biggest according to 46.8% of respondents is congestion. More than half (57.8%) said congestion was having a significant negative impact on the public transport network for which they are responsible. What will the new government do to address this problem?
Launched three years and three prime ministers ago, the National Bus Strategy for England pledged to speed up bus journeys. Our survey respondents were not impressed. Only a fifth (21.1%) said that it exceeded their expectations. Almost twice as many (39.5%) said that it fell short or a long way short of their expectations. Will Labour come up with its own strategy for buses?
There is positivity about some other key aspects of bus policy. More than half of respondents (53.2%) believe that devolution deals are improving the relationship between authorities and operators to deliver a better bus service to passengers. In contrast, only 10.7% said the opposite. There is also positivity about the preparedness of organisations for bus franchising and/or Enhanced Partnerships and the transition to zero emission bus fleets.
A clear majority (59.6%) predict that public transport patronage will be higher or significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2030
Finally, there is a high degree of optimism about the future. A clear majority (59.6%) predict that public transport patronage will be higher or significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2030, with only 19.2% forecasting the opposite. And almost half (48.9%) believe it’s likely that efforts to achieve Net Zero will lead to policies that constrain car use and promote public transport.
Data and technology
Conducted in association with data specialists CitySwift, our survey – The State of UK Public Transport – also featured questions on the subject of data and technology. The findings from this section of the survey will be published in the next edition of Passenger Transport.
The State of UK Public Transport 2024
– Key findings of our survey
SHORT TERM:
What’s the biggest opportunity right now for the UK public transport sector?
- Increasing patronage or footfall (63.8%)
- Using data to optimise the network (19.1%)
- Growing environmental awareness (4.3%)
What’s the biggest challenge currently facing the UK public transport network?
- Congestion (46.8%)
- Recruitment and retention (14.9%)
- Greater regulatory powers (6.4%)
- Other (31.9%)
CURRENT ISSUES:
How is traffic congestion impacting the public transport network you are responsible for?
- A significant negative impact (57.8%)
- A negative impact (34.0%)
- Little or no impact (8.5%)
Has the National Bus Strategy for England exceeded your expectations?
- It greatly exceeded my expectations (0.0%)
- It exceeded my expectations (21.1%)
- It is as I had expected (39.5%)
- It fell short of my expectations (7.9%)
- It fell a long way short of my expectations (31.6%)
(Excludes those who said ‘not applicable’)
Are devolution deals improving the relationship between authorities and operators to deliver a better bus service to passengers?
- A significant improvement (17.0%)
- A slight improvement (36.2%)
- No improvement (36.2%)
- A slight decline (4.3%)
- A significant decline (6.4%)
How prepared do you feel your organisation is for bus franchising and/or Enhanced Partnerships?
- Very prepared (48.3%)
- Slightly prepared (37.9%)
- Not prepared at all (13.8%)
(Excludes those who said ‘not applicable’)
How prepared is your organisation for rolling out and scheduling zero-emission electric bus fleets?
- Very prepared (37.5%)
- Slightly prepared (37.5%)
- Not prepared at all (25.0%)
(Excludes those who said ‘not applicable’)
MEDIUM TERM:
In 2030, how will public transport patronage compare to pre-pandemic levels?
- Significantly higher (12.8%)
- Higher (46.8%)
- About the same (21.3%)
- Lower (14.9%)
- Significantly lower (4.3%)
Do you expect efforts to achieve Net Zero will lead to policies that constrain car use and promote public transport?
- Very likely (14.9%)
- Likely (34.0%)
- About the same (14.9%)
- Unlikely (29.8%)
- Very unlikely (6.4%)
COMMENT: Now is the time to seize opportunities
By Brian O’Rourke, CitySwift
Momentum is building within the UK public transport sector, captured by the new transport secretary, Louise Haigh, who has promised to “move fast and fix things”. This optimistic outlook is reflected in the results from the third The State of UK Public Transport survey conducted in partnership between CitySwift and Passenger Transport. It’s an exciting time for the industry after a turbulent few years.
The survey results highlight that transport leaders see increasing patronage as the biggest opportunity for the industry in the medium term, despite patronage already being higher or significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Providing reliable services that meet passengers’ needs is the quickest way to positively impact patronage levels, but one of the major challenges in the way of this is congestion.
Labour has outlined plans to reinstate the ban on the sale of internal combustion engine cars by 2030, and supporting the transition to electric vehicles, which hopefully will play a crucial role in reducing congestion and promoting the use of public transport.
With the Labour government, it is clear that local authorities will be given more powers through devolution deals. The majority of respondents to the survey indicate their organisations are increasingly prepared for this significant change in operating environment.
Effective collaboration between authorities and operators is critical to delivering fit-for-purpose bus services that meet the needs of local people, communities, and businesses
Effective collaboration between authorities and operators is critical to delivering fit-for-purpose bus services that meet the needs of local people, communities, and businesses. This ensures the right enhancements are made for all parties – operators, authorities, and most importantly passengers. I strongly believe that using reliable data insights to optimise network performance is crucial to enabling informed decision-making and coordinated actions.
The survey results paint a bright future for the UK public transport sector. With the right strategies and collaborative efforts, the sector is well-positioned to accelerate the delivery of better bus services for passengers, operators, and authorities alike. Now is the time to seize these opportunities and drive forward improvements that will benefit all.
Brian O’Rourke is CEO and co-founder of CitySwift, an Irish-based intelligent performance optimisation platform that helps public transport authorities and operators deliver dynamic services that are ultra-efficient and reliable. CitySwift’s customer base features some of the world’s largest public transport bodies, including Go-Ahead Group, Transport for Wales, National Express Group, Translink, Oxfordshire County Council, and East Yorkshire Buses.
This article appears inside the latest issue of Passenger Transport.
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