Demand will remain around 40% less than pre-pandemic levels
Transport for London is unlikely to see patronage on its networks recover to pre-pandemic levels according to analysts at ratings firm Moody’s.
The warning comes after Andy Byford, London’s transport commissioner, warned last month that patronage recovery on the capital’s transport networks may take far longer than many within the industry expect.
Moody’s claims changes in working patterns and lifestyles will trigger a permanent drop in mass transit ridership compared to pre-pandemic levels, creating an enduring loss of own-source operating revenue for TfL and other transit agencies around the world.
“The shift to remote working, coupled with the increased use of online leisure and retail services, will lower demand and permanently reduce farebox revenues for mass transit systems,” claims analyst Zoe Jankel.
She added that while some recovery is expected, subject to vaccine delivery and the associated control of the pandemic, demand will remain around 40% less than pre-pandemic levels in the current financial year.
The shift to remote working… will lower demand and permanently reduce farebox revenues for mass transit systems
Moody’s also expects patronage to permanently fall by 20% from pre-pandemic levels, although, over time, some of these losses will be mitigated by new users, along with new infrastructure capacity.
However, Moody’s warns that transit agencies should avoid slashing services as a means of controlling costs. “Strong social and environmental-related demand for mass transit services mean large cuts to services are not feasible,” it adds. “This will prevent central governments from reaching their carbon emission goals.”
Moody’s also warns that reductions in tax revenues will also put pressure on budgets in the medium-term. It adds central government funding support will be critical over this period too.
This article appears inside the latest issue of Passenger Transport.
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